Chief Economist, KBC Bank

Many economists in Ireland have brought their profession into disrepute in recent years, but few have done it as consistently and entertainingly as Austin Hughes, the chief economist with KBC Bank, formerly IIB Bank.

Hughes' ability to be wrong about property, wrong about interest rates, wrong about the economy, has been breathtaking. What marked him apart was his ability to be wrong with such confidence.

In 2006 the greatest asset bubble in the history of the state began to run out of steam. One would think that an economist would understand that no bubble can inflate forever. Austin however didn't see it that way.

a more pertinent question is to ask why Irish house prices are rising so slowly
May 2006

He saw the double digit growth continuing.

We expect house prices will rise by 10 percent on average in both 2006 and 2007. As a result housebuilding will remain a key sector of this economy.
May 2006

You have to remember that at the time when Austin was predicting that housebuilding would remain a key sector of the economy, we already had 100's of thousands of empty houses.

Not great on house prices, how about interest rates?

The ECB (European Central Bank) simply doesn't have to rise rates any further. The current 3.5pc bank rate (which means at least a 4.5pc rate for borrowers) is sufficient. We've been guaranteed another one in December but that will be it, done and dusted.
November 2006

In the year and a half following this 'done and dusted' comment, the ECB actually raised interest rates 4 times, by a total of 1%.

Despite the fact the the ECB kept raising rates, Austin could always be relied upon for a prediction.

The European Central Bank is now likely to cut interest rates, rather than raising them, over the next few months
September 2007

A further rate rise is most unlikely because economic growth in the Eurozone is softening. And fears about inflation in the eurozone are overdone. You can't entirely rule out a rise, but I don't think it is going to happen. The bad news on borrowing costs is coming to an end.
September 2007

the ECB is playing a game of bluff, which it may carry on until it is "forced to cut.
October 2007

we feel the emerging economic evidence is beginning to point instead towards the prospect of lower interest rates as early as next spring
November 2007

pressure on borrowers will ease with two rates cuts of 0.25% in the first half of 2008 bringing rates down from 4% to 3.5%
November 2007

It is my gut feeling that there will be a cut in the spring. Eurozone rates could fall by as much as 1pc by the end of the year.
January 2008

the property market could start to pick up by the end of the year, spurred on by two, possibly three, cuts in European Central Bank rates.
January 2008

If we get a cut in interest rates soon, expect a major surge in housing activity, particularly from first-time buyers, who are shying away from the market at the moment.
March 2008

We still expect rates to fall by three quarters of a percentage point by year end, We now expect the first rate cut in June but wouldn't rule out an earlier move if financial conditions deteriorate.
May 2008

Being this wrong, this often might shame lesser men into silence, but on planet Austin, it is not he but rather the ECB that has it's credibility hanging in the balance.

a painful slowdown will emerge in coming months, which will force the ECB to shred its credibility and make an emergency cut.
April 2008

After his anus horribilis or two of predictions, Austin was "shocked" to discover that the ECB might not follow his advice.

the indication that interest rates could rise as early as next month "is probably the biggest shock the ECB has delivered to financial markets in its nine-and-a-half-year history.
June 2008

Austin's new hobby is bottom spotting. Anyone hoping that the house prices might soon pick up will be scared, very scared to find that Austin has turned his predicting skills to calling the bottom of the housing market.

As with most economic spoofers, Austin tends to predict recovery at least six months away. We can only assume that he has worked out that six months is long enough for people to forget the last time he was wrong.

"We are past the low point of the downturn, and things will get a little easier in the next six months"
July 2009

Signs of slightly stronger conditions, for example in the first time buyers market or in Dublin suggest that some parts of the market may have begun to bottom out even if no marked improvement is envisaged in early 2010
December 2009

If Austin calls the bottom of the housing market as many times as he called a cut in interest rates, house prices could fall A LOT further.

Somebody, stop that man.