You can't artificially inflate prices forever, and you shouldn't even try
We have a massive oversupply of properties in Ireland, with 15% vacancy in housing stock (over 275,000 empty house in a nation that has 1.8/1.5 million). This message does not seem to have made it to the average person in Ireland.
The fundamentals for high property prices are simply not there. It is a pyramid scheme built upon artificial demand. Like an addict the Irish economy has to admit the problem exists in order to accept the hard times to come. Artificially supporting the housing market to please wealthy developers will make the problem more acute and the correction all the harder.
Homes have become too expensive. The average mortgage costs 42% of income for the average earner. The historical average is 28%. As calculated by Dan McLoughlin(Chief Economist with Bank of Ireland). Supporting the market could have dire long term circumstances in affecting peoples ability to provide for their future if wage increases are constrained and the first time buyer's pay increase does not keep pace with inflation.
We are part of a global market. Our economy was built on exports. This leaves our economy very sensitive to global competition on the goods we produce. Our main competitors are first world countries such as the US, UK and EU members. The price of property underpins everything in an economy. When a business prices their product they have to factor in the cost of leasing their premises. Their employees' salary is dependent on the cost of living in the country of residence. In short this means inordinately high property prices in a country will have a negative impact on any business operating in the high cost country. This is a very serious situation for Ireland as we have many mobile US multinationals who will readily move when the country is no longer competitive. For Ireland this time has come. Many companies will leave. However the news is not all bad. We can keep companies here if we allow a quick correction to property prices. This will bring back our competitiveness.
All the government have to do is to do nothing. Property prices are falling rapidly and will continue to do so until they come in line with our competitors.
Governments don't always do what they should, so let's look at what the government might do.
- Buy properties from builders at current artificially bloated prices to soak up supply.
- Expand the Affordable Housing schemes and buy up excess stock.
- Provide artificially cheap credit for mortgage applicants.
- Enable people to borrow more than is prudent.
Who will benefit?
If any or all of these measures are taken by the government, it will be presented as help for buyers, in particular first time buyers. The reality is rather different. All of these measures keep house prices high. All of these measures ensure that buyers must borrow more.
These measures only help developers. Slowing the decline in house prices gives developers more time to dispose of their vast inventory of empty houses at artificially inflated prices.
All of these measures amount to a direct subsidy to developers paid for by the tax payer.
